How Evacuation Thresholds Relate to Wildfire Fatalities and Interactive Map for Wildfire Evacuation Risk

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RESEARCH. Published in PhysOrg, June 2nd, 2026 and PNAS, June 1st, 2026. Thanks to the Santa Clara Fire Safe Council‘s CEO Seth Schalet for the curation of these articles.

1. Article: Six Roads to Safety: A critical threshold for wildfire survival
By Sonia Fernandez, University of California – Santa Barbara, edited by Sadie Harley, reviewed by Robert Egan.

2. Study: Egress thresholds for and wildfire fatalities:
Authored by Caitlin R. Fong, Carlo W. Broderick, Max A. Moritz, and Benjamin S. Halpern.

A new study from UC Santa Barbara reveals that the number of roads out of a community may be one of the strongest predictors of wildfire fatalities, and that a surprisingly specific threshold separates high-risk communities from safer ones.

The study’s lead author, Caitlin Fong, UC Santa Barbara’s National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) and Bren School of Environmental Science & Management – University of California, Santa Barbara compiled the most extensive georeferenced wildfire fatality dataset to date, covering 342 deaths across the United States from 2008 to 2024.

The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), is an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans the biological, physical, and social sciences. The journal is global in scope and submission is open to all researchers worldwide. PNAS is one of the world’s most-cited and comprehensive multidisciplinary scientific journals.

3. Interactive Map for Wildfire Evacuation Risk Across U. S. Communities

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