WSL’s Mavericks Challenge Window Reopens Jan. 3rd, 2019

Hello All,

We are going to Pass on Mavericks BWT event for Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th.

To have a successful event we need a full eight hours of swell and we are not seeing it on either of these days. Wednesday looks to have a good afternoon and Thursday looks to have a good Morning.

With three months left in the waiting period we remain confident we will get a better opportunity.

Regards,
Mike Parsons
WSL BWT Commissioner

Below is from Surfline’s Kevin Wallis

Based on what I can see right now, here’s the timing for Wed-Thur:

Wed AM through mid day: Mainly the old, mid period swell (10-12’ deepwater swell at ~14 seconds). Some very long period 22-24 second forerunners possibly building, but small. Likely struggling with the high tide, with max faces around 20-25’ and lully.

Wed mid day-2PM: Building 6-8’+ deepwater swell at 20-22 second period. 20-25’ occ. 30’ faces but juicy/powerful.

Wed 3PM-dark: Building 9-11’+ swell at 18-20 seconds with 25-35’ faces and max sets in the 40’ range

6PM-midnight: Peaking 15’+ deepwater swell at 17-18 seconds (30-40 occ, 45’+ faces)

Thur First light 12-13’ at 16-17 seconds: 25-30 occ. 35’ faces (high tide holds things backs some)

Thur mid day: 12’ at 16 seconds: 20-30’ faces.

Thur late afternoon: 10-11 at 15-16 seconds with 20-25 occ. 30’ faces on the lower tide and waning consistency.

Overall consistency during the peak of the swell should be lower+ to medium (limiting factors include modest storm size, especially in comparison to the storm that set up the Monday swell, and storm peak around 1800-2100 miles away. Positive factors include the ‘captured’ fetch). Wind looks favorable both Wed and Thur and while the possibility for fog will need to be monitored, we look k right now.

Also, just a long range heads up: there are a few factors in our favor for enhanced swell in January, including overall climatology (January tends to see the largest surf regardless of ENSO phase, etc.), a likely weak to moderate strength El Nino and some of the seasonal models, shown below, also show at least slightly lower than normal pressure near the Aleutian Islands/Gulf of Alaska (ie., stormier and potential for larger than normal surf) and higher than normal pressure over California (potential for stretches of pleasant weather and light wind). While this doesn’t guarantee that we’ll get a great swell with light wind, it does tilt the odds in our favor.